The US healthcare debate has focused a lot of attention on cost, price transparency and quality. As a result, medical tourism has garnered a lot of attention in the media and the press. When the fog clears,however, it is still unclear how much healthcare reform will impact whether Americans will go out of country for care. A few things seem clear, though.

First, the initial outbound medical tourism growth predictions seem overinflated. The numbers of patients leaving the US seems significantly less than originally stated. Major consulting firms are revising their growth projections downward.

Second, there continues to be low barriers to entry with providers, service providers and consultants scrambling to secure a dominant place in the market.

Finally, as I’ve written before, a crucial tipping point for outbound medical tourism will happen when referring physicians begin to trust overseas consultants. That will take a while.

In the meantime, innovators and early adoptors will continue to view medical tourism as a viable alternative, particularly when faced with the choice of getting something done at a price they can afford, versus not being able to get it done at all in the US because of high cost. The early majority will join later.

arlen.meyers@medvoy.com